Australia weather preview: Autumn/winter 2025

It’s probably a relief for many to see the word “typical” in the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest long-term forecast for Australia. Not to rain on anyone’s parade (apologies for that one), but at FM we see this as a prime opportunity to fortify existing plans and continue to consider new ways to make your business resilient for when there’s less optimism, quite literally, in the air.

As we move into the heart of 2025, the BoM predictions for businesses across Australia are for a season with a mix of typical (there it is) rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures. No shock here, but the long-range forecast for April to July 2025 still offers valuable insights for commercial property owners and managers.

Here's a breakdown of what to expect and how to prepare.

Moisture: The essence of wetness

For most of eastern, central and south-western Australia, rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for the season. This means that while you might not need to worry about flooding, it's still wise to ensure your property's roof and stormwater drainage systems are in good working order. However, if your business is located in northern and central Western Australia, the Northern Territory's Top End or Queensland's far northern Cape York Peninsula, you should prepare for above-average rainfall. These areas have a 60% to 80% chance of experiencing more rain than usual.

April is shaping up to be the wettest month, with higher chances of above-average rainfall extending across parts of south-western and northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, most of Queensland and eastern and northern New South Wales. As we move into May and June, the likelihood of above-average rainfall decreases, so the early part of the season will be the wettest.

For the remainder of March, Australia saw above-average rainfall. This was largely due to the influence of Tropical Cyclones Zelia in the northwest, and Alfred, which, even as it degraded to a low, continued to impact weather patterns in south-eastern Queensland, and eastern parts of New South Wales and Victoria.

Turning up the heat

If your business relies on outdoor activities or has temperature-sensitive operations, the forecast indicates that most of Australia will experience warmer-than-average days and nights from April to June, with a high chance (60% to greater than 80%) of unusually high daytime temperatures across the country. This means that businesses should prepare for additional energy costs due to higher air conditioning usage.

The eastern states and parts of the Kimberley in Western Australia are particularly likely to see these higher temperatures, and nights won't offer much relief either, as above-average minimum temperatures are very likely across almost all of Australia as well. So, if your business operates around the clock, consider preparing for increased power usage for refrigerated cooling systems or for temperature-controlled locations.

SSTs: A dubious record

The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Australia have been breaking records. February 2025 saw the warmest SSTs on record for any February since records began in 1900. This trend has been consistent since October 2024, with each month setting new records. The latest weekly analysis shows that waters around most of the Australian coastline are warmer than average, with anomalies reaching up to 3°C above average off Western Australia's Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

These warmer waters are not just a trivial statistic; they have real implications for weather patterns. Warmer SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy, which can influence the severity of tropical storms and support the development of tropical cyclones. For businesses, this means being prepared for potential disruptions due to severe weather events. Ensure your property is well-maintained and that you have a robust emergency plan in place.

Neutral pero notable

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, which means we're not currently in an El Niño or La Niña phase. This neutral state is expected to continue until at least July, according to the Bureau's model and other international models. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, with little association with Australian climate from December to April.

Notably, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was also neutral as of early March, and forecasts correctly suggested it would remain so until at least mid-March. These neutral conditions mean that while there are no extreme climate drivers at play, the overall warmer and wetter conditions are still significant.

What does this mean for your business?

In practical terms, this forecast suggests a season of contrasts. While much of Australia will see typical rainfall, certain areas will experience wetter conditions, particularly in the early part of the season. At the same time, warmer-than-average temperatures will dominate, making for a balmy few months.

For businesses, this means taking proactive steps to mitigate potential risks. Ensure your property's drainage systems are clear and functioning properly to handle any unexpected downpours and invest in energy-efficient cooling solutions to manage increased temperatures. Review and update your emergency plans to account for potential severe weather events, and ensure your staff is trained and prepared.

Additionally, stay updated with the Bureau's forecasts, which are updated daily. This will help you make informed decisions and adjust your plans as needed. Whether you're managing a retail location, an office building or an industrial facility, being prepared is the best way to ensure your business can weather whatever Mother Nature has in store.

So, as we move through April and beyond, keep an eye on the weather, stay proactive and ensure your business is ready for the season ahead, as “typical” is open to interpretation. With a bit of preparation, you can navigate the coming months with confidence and resilience.